Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

A review of the impacts of nature based recreation on birds

Nature based recreation such as wildlife viewing, hiking, running, cycling, canoeing, horse riding and dog walking can have negative environmental effects. A review of the recreation ecology literature published in English language academic journals identified 69 papers from 1978 to 2010 that examined the effect of these activities on birds. Sixty-one of the papers (88%) found negative impacts, including changes in bird physiology (all 11 papers), immediate behaviour (37 out of 41 papers), as well as changes in abundance (28 out of 33 papers) and reproductive success (28 out of 33 papers). Previous studies are concentrated in a few countries (United States, England, Argentina and New Zealand), mostly in cool temperate or temperate climatic zones, often in shoreline or wetland habitats, and mostly on insectivore, carnivore and crustaceovore/molluscivore foraging guilds. There is limited research in some regions with both high bird diversity and nature based recreation such as mainland Australia, Central America, Asia, and Africa, and for popular activities such as mountain bike riding and horse riding. It is clear, however, that non-motorised nature based recreation has negative impacts on a diversity of birds from a range of habitats in different climatic zones and regions of the world.     

The influence of place attachment, and moral and normative concerns on the conservation of native vegetation: A test of two behavioural models

This study examines the influence of place attachment, values, beliefs and personal norms about environmental action on the conservation of native vegetation in two primary production settings in South Australia. We use regression and multiple mediation analyses to test a base model of pro-environmental behaviour which includes variables from value-belief-norm (VBN) theory and then compare it to an expanded model which includes the same variables and five dimensions of place attachment. The expanded model including place attachment explained up to twice the amount of variance in native vegetation planting than the base model when controlling for all variables preceding behaviour, but the overall explanatory power was low (<22%). Place attachment had a stronger influence on the antecedents of behaviour compared with the behaviour itself, particularly nature bonding which was a significant moderate predictor of both personal norms and awareness of consequences in the two study regions. We assert that place attachment has statistically significant direct and indirect effects on variables included in VBN theory. Future studies may reveal stronger effects in settings where there are fewer resource and monetary costs associated with pro-environmental behaviour.     

Risk factors for elevated Enterococcus concentrations in a rural tropical island watershed

Associations were examined between riparian canopy cover, presence of cattle near streams, and month of year with the concentration of Enterococcus (Most Probable Number (MPN)/100 ml) in surface water at Waipā watershed on the North Side of the Hawaiian island Kaua'i. Each one percent decrease in riparian canopy cover was associated with a 3.6 MPN/100 ml increase of waterborne Enterococcus. Presence of cattle near monitoring sites was associated with an increase of 99.3 MPN/100 ml of Enterococcus in individual grab samples. Lastly, summer samples (July) were substantially higher in concentration of Enterococcus than winter collected samples (February) in Enterococcus in sampled streams. These results suggest that reducing canopy cover and introduction of cattle into riparian zones may contribute to increases of Enterococcus concentrations in stream water.     

Development of the gap model ZELIG-CFS to predict the dynamics of North American mixed forest types with complex structures

When the development of gap models began about three decades ago, they became a new category of forest productivity models. Compared with traditional growth and yield models, which aim at deriving empirical relationships that best fit data, gap models use semi-theoretical relationships to simulate biotic and abiotic processes in forest stands, including the effects of photosynthetic active radiation interception, site fertility, temperature and soil moisture on tree growth and seedling establishment. While growth and yield models are appropriate to predict short-term stemwood production, gap models may be used to predict the natural course of species replacement for several generations. Because of the poor availability of historical data and knowledge on species-specific allometric relationships, species replacement and death rate, it has seldom been possible to develop and evaluate the most representative algorithms to predict growth and mortality with a high degree of accuracy. For this reason, the developers of gap models focused more on developing simulation tools to improve the understanding of forest succession than predicting growth and yield accurately.In a previous study, the predictions of simulations in two southeastern Canadian mixed ecosystem types using the ZELIG gap model were compared with long-term historical data. This exercise highlighted model components that needed modifications to improve the predictive capacity of ZELIG. The updated version of the model, ZELIG-CFS, includes modifications in the modelling of crown interaction effects, survival rate and regeneration. Different algorithms representing crown interactive effects between crowns were evaluated and species-specific model components that compute individual-tree mortality probability rate were derived. The results of the simulations were compared using long-term remeasurement data obtained from sample plots located in La Mauricie National Park of Canada in Quebec. In the present study, three forest types were studied: (1) red spruce-balsam fir-yellow birch, (2) yellow birch-sugar maple-balsam fir, and (3) red spruce-balsam fir-white birch mixed ecosystems. Among the seven algorithms that represented individual crown interactions, two better predicted the changes in basal area and individual-tree growth: (1) the mean available light growing factor (ALGF), which is computed from the proportion of light intercepted at different levels of individual crowns adjusted by the species-specific shade tolerance index, and (2) the ratio of mean ALGF to crown width. The long-term predicted patterns of change in basal area were consistent with the life history of the different species.     

Development of TRIPLEX-Management model for simulating the response of forest growth to pre-commercial thinning

In order to simulate forest growth response to pre-commercial thinning (PCT), TRIPLEX1.0 - a process-based model designed to predict forest growth as well as carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics - was modified and improved to also simulate managed forest ecosystem thinning practices. A three-parameter Weibull distribution model was integrated to simulate thinning treatments within the newly developed TRIPLEX-Management model. The thinning intensity component within the model allows users to simulate thinning treatments by applying basal area, stand density and volume to quantify thinning intensity. Natural mortality decreased following thinning due to an increase in growing space for residual stems. Predicted litterfall pools also increased after thinning events took place. The TRIPLEX-Management model was tested against published observational data for Jack Pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) stands subjected to PCT in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. The coefficients of determination (R²) between the predicted and observed variables including stand density, mean DBH (diameter at breast height), the quadratic mean DBH, total volume and merchantable volume as well as belowground, aboveground, and total biomass ranged from 0.50 to 0.88 (n = 20, P < 0.001) with the exception of mean tree height (R² = 0.25, n = 20, P < 0.05). Overall, the Willmott index of agreement between predicted and observed variables ranged from 0.97 to 1.00. Results show that the TRIPLEX-Management model is generally capable of simulating growth response to PCT for Jack Pine stands.     

The structure of gallery networks in the nests of termite <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cubitermes</Emphasis> spp. revealed by X-ray tomography

Recent studies have introduced computer tomography (CT) as a tool for the visualisation and characterisation of insect architectures. Here, we use CT to map the three-dimensional networks of galleries inside Cubitermes nests in order to analyse them with tools from graph theory. The structure of these networks indicates that connections inside the nest are rearranged during the whole nest life. The functional analysis reveals that the final network topology represents an excellent compromise between efficient connectivity inside the nest and defence against attacking predators. We further discuss and illustrate the usefulness of CT to disentangle environmental and specific influences on nest architecture.     

A novel survey of raptor collections in Europe and their potential to provide samples for pan-European contaminant monitoring

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - This paper provides a novel survey of current collections of frozen raptor carcasses and tissue samples in natural history museums (NHMs),...     

Carbon leakage and capacity-based allocations: Is the EU right?

Competitiveness and carbon leakage are major concerns for the design of CO₂ emissions permits markets. In the absence of a global carbon tax and of border carbon adjustments, output-based allocation is a third-best solution and is actually implemented (Australia, California, New Zealand). The EU has followed a different route; free allowances are allocated to existing or new capacities in proportion to a benchmark, independent of actual production. This paper compares these two schemes in a formal setting and shows that the optimal one is in fact a combination of both schemes, or output-based allocation alone if uncertainty is limited. A key assumption of our analysis is that the short-term import pressure depends both on the existing capacities and the level of demand, which is typical in capital intensive and internationally traded sectors. A calibration of the model is used to discuss the EU scheme for the cement sector in the third phase of the EU-ETS (2013–2020). This allows for a quantification of various policies in terms of welfare, investment, production, company profits, public revenues and leakage.     

Meta-analysis of susceptibility of woody plants to loss of genetic diversity through habitat fragmentation

Shrubs and trees are assumed less likely to lose genetic variation in response to habitat fragmentation because they have certain life-history characteristics such as long lifespans and extensive pollen flow. To test this assumption, we conducted a meta-analysis with data on 97 woody plant species derived from 98 studies of habitat fragmentation. We measured the weighted response of four different measures of population-level genetic diversity to habitat fragmentation with Hedge's d and Spearman rank correlation. We tested whether the genetic response to habitat fragmentation was mediated by life-history traits (longevity, pollination mode, and seed dispersal vector) and study characteristics (genetic marker and plant material used). For both tests of effect size habitat fragmentation was associated with a substantial decrease in expected heterozygosity, number of alleles, and percentage of polymorphic loci, whereas the population inbreeding coefficient was not associated with these measures. The largest proportion of variation among effect sizes was explained by pollination mechanism and by the age of the tissue (progeny or adult) that was genotyped. Our primary finding was that wind-pollinated trees and shrubs appeared to be as likely to lose genetic variation as insect-pollinated species, indicating that severe habitat fragmentation may lead to pollen limitation and limited gene flow. In comparison with results of previous meta-analyses on mainly herbaceous species, we found trees and shrubs were as likely to have negative genetic responses to habitat fragmentation as herbaceous species. We also found that the genetic variation in offspring was generally less than that of adult trees, which is evidence of a genetic extinction debt and probably reflects the genetic diversity of the historical, less-fragmented landscape.